2027 Decision Week: Can Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai Unseat Tinubu?
…As coalition talks intensify, Nigerians watch closely
By Luminous Jannamike, Abuja
A quiet Tuesday night in Abuja witnessed a significant political shift as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Babachir Lawal, David Mark, and Salihu Lukman convened to discuss a bold plan: dethroning President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections.
The meeting, held behind closed doors, marked a major step for the National Opposition Coalition Group (NOCG)—a growing political alliance aiming to reshape Nigeria’s leadership. Yet, amid ambition and growing public frustration over poverty, inflation, and insecurity, the big question remains: Can they stay united?
The Coalition: Power Players and Political Crossroads
The emerging coalition is fueled by Nigeria’s rising discontent: from teachers owed months of salaries to market traders crushed by inflation. With David Mark as its figurehead, the NOCG is working on a united platform that might either adopt the African Democratic Congress (ADC), favor the Social Democratic Party (SDP), or form a new party altogether.
Despite the optimism, deep cracks are visible. El-Rufai supports the SDP while others lean towards ADC. A final decision is expected by May 30, 2025—but political egos could derail the mission.
Nigeria’s Coalition History: A Cautionary Tale
From the First Republic’s NPC-NCNC alliance to the 2019 CUPP coalition, history has often repeated itself: hope collapses under the weight of political ambition and ethnic rivalries.
- 1959–1966: NPC and NCNC alliance collapses; ends in military coup.
- 1979–1983: NPN alliances crumble amid corruption and economic decline.
- 1993: SDP’s Abiola wins, but election annulled.
- 2015: APC emerges as a rare success story—until internal rifts set in.
- 2019: CUPP fails to defeat Buhari, ends in disarray.
The NOCG must learn from the past or risk becoming another footnote in Nigeria’s turbulent political timeline.
Key Figures Speak: Vision, Warnings, and Clashing Ideals
Peter Obi: “This Is About Service, Not Titles”
Obi champions governance that puts Nigerians first, citing his free education policy in Anambra as proof. “Politics is not a career. I’m not in this to be someone—I’m in this to do something.”
Babachir Lawal: “The PDP Is Beyond Repair”
Lawal dismisses Atiku’s PDP ties, calling the party “incurably sick” and supporting a clean-slate platform like the ADC. He insists the goal is a coalition rooted in purpose, not personalities.
Salihu Lukman: “We Need a People-Led Party”
Disillusioned with the APC, Lukman demands a grassroots-driven party with transparency and accountability. He warns that Nigeria’s democracy is fragile and needs urgent repair.
Adewole Adebayo: “SDP Won’t Be Hijacked”
The 2023 SDP candidate welcomes coalition talks but warns that no one should control the party. “We’re open to alliances, but come to serve, not rule.”
Dele Momodu: “Ego Could Destroy Everything”
PDP loyalist Momodu warns that the coalition’s biggest threat isn’t APC—it’s ego. “Nigeria is bigger than Atiku, Obi, or El-Rufai. Humility is the key to survival.”
Fani-Kayode: “This Coalition Will Fail”
From the APC camp, Fani-Kayode laughs off the coalition, claiming Tinubu’s machine is too powerful to defeat. “They’ll fight, split, and Tinubu will win again.”
Internal Struggles: Party Switching, Leadership Clashes, Legal Battles
- Atiku may exit PDP, citing dysfunction and the possible return of Goodluck Jonathan.
- Obi faces leadership tussles in Labour Party and may defect.
- El-Rufai, now with the SDP, seeks more influence.
- Lawal, Mark, and Lukman juggle mediation roles, each trying to balance ambition with national interest.
While committees led by Rotimi Amaechi and Liyel Imoke explore viable party platforms, the ADC is emerging as the front-runner, but no official confirmation has been made.
The Stakes: Real Change or Just Political Theatre?
Ordinary Nigerians are watching—hoping. With soaring food prices, rampant insecurity, and a cost-of-living crisis, the 2027 elections offer a chance at national reset. But only if the coalition holds.
⚠️ Key Risks:
- Leadership power struggles
- Regional and ideological divides
- Legal obstacles over defections
- PDP governors resisting Atiku’s moves
- Disunity over platform selection
Conclusion: The Countdown Begins
With May 30, 2025 set as the coalition’s decision day, Nigeria is at a political crossroads. The NOCG alliance offers hope, but its success hinges on unity, humility, and the ability to inspire a frustrated electorate.
Will 2027 bring real change or another heartbreak? The political chessboard is set, the players are moving—and the clock is ticking.
