Follow the latest polling data in the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With just two weeks until the US election, discover which swing states could decide the outcome on November 5..mynewslive
Trump vs. Harris: Who’s Leading as the US Election Nears?
With less than two weeks until Americans head to the polls, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Polling averages show the two candidates neck and neck in several key swing states, with both aiming to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency on November 5.
National Polls Show a Tight Race
According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages, Vice President Harris holds a slight edge over former President Trump, leading by 1.9 percentage points nationally. A recent Washington Post survey echoes this close race, with 47% of registered voters expressing support for each candidate. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday gives Harris a marginal lead at 46% compared to Trump’s 43%.
The Role of the Electoral College Though the national polls suggest a tight contest, it’s the Electoral College that will ultimately determine the outcome. Most states lean decisively towards either party, leaving seven crucial battlegrounds to sway the final result. These swing states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—hold a combined 93 electoral votes, making them pivotal in deciding the winner.
Swing States in Focus
The battle for these seven states remains too close to call. Polls indicate that Trump holds a slight advantage in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. However, Harris is edging ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. In Pennsylvania, the race is even closer, with Trump holding a narrow lead. If these slim margins persist, the election outcome could hinge on small shifts in voter sentiment or unexpected support for either candidate on election night.
The 2020 Lessons and Polling Accuracy In 2020, states like Georgia and Arizona flipped to the Democrats after decades of Republican dominance, contributing to Joe Biden’s victory over Trump. Yet, polls have faced criticism for underestimating support for Republican candidates, including in 2016 and 2020. Even in the 2022 midterms, polls missed the mark by undercounting Democratic support.
As Americans prepare to cast their ballots, the uncertainties of polling loom large. While Harris and Trump remain in a virtual tie, the true test will come on election night when every vote is counted.
Stay updated with the latest polling data, insights, and analysis as the US election approaches. Explore which states are in play and what could tip the scales in this closely watched race.
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