As Nigeria heads toward the 2027 general elections, a major opposition bloc — formed under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) — is struggling with an identity crisis as top political figures Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rotimi Amaechi all vie for the coalition’s presidential ticket.
Each has declared interest with a promise to serve only one term, aligning with southern power rotation sentiments. However, no clear consensus has emerged on who should lead, raising fears of fragmentation within the anti-Tinubu alliance.
Political analyst Prof. Okey Ikechukwu warns the coalition must “prepare for a fight” against the ruling APC, describing the opposition’s current structure as disjointed and lacking grassroots depth. He criticizes their over-reliance on online popularity and surface-level alliances without solid local party networks.
He pointed out that many of the coalition members have a history of ideological clashes, personal ambition, and no track record of working together, making a credible united front extremely difficult.
The Obidient Movement — largely behind Peter Obi — was also advised to abandon the illusion that social media support equates to votes. “There are no polling booths on the internet,” Ikechukwu warned, citing the need for robust ward-level organizing and strategic funding.
On internal PDP issues, Ikechukwu discussed the controversial reinstatement of Senator Samuel Anyanwu as PDP National Secretary, which many southeast members oppose. He described the PDP as “already imploded” and unlikely to contest — only participate — in 2027 due to internal disunity and weak leadership.
Concerning Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu, speculation about his defection to APC was acknowledged as credible. Ikechukwu challenged PDP leaders to give elected governors a reason not to defect rather than complain after they do.
On strategy, the analyst called on the opposition to:
- Define a clear ideological direction
- Agree on a zoning formula for president and vice president
- Build structures from wards to national level
- Move from rhetoric to grassroots organizing
He emphasized that APC should not rejoice over defections without proper “warehousing,” as absorbing too many without structure could backfire. The party must stay focused on policy delivery and grassroots performance.
🔍 Key Analysis & Implications:
- Obi, Atiku, Amaechi deadlock: Without a unified candidate, the coalition risks internal sabotage and voter confusion.
- Obidient weakness: The movement must move from online buzz to field politics and agent coordination.
- APC advantage: Tinubu remains the man to beat, with incumbency, structure, and momentum on his side.
- Possible spoilers: Peter Mbah and others defecting to APC may collapse PDP strength in the South-East.
