Concerns are growing that Nigeria may be sliding toward a one-party state, as the once-dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) struggles to retain its strongholds amid a new wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Reports indicate that four PDP governors in Northern Nigeria are considering switching to the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections, further weakening the opposition’s presence and threatening the country’s multiparty balance.
Once the ruling party for 16 consecutive years, the PDP now governs only eight states—Bauchi, Oyo, Adamawa, Osun, Plateau, Taraba, Zamfara, and Rivers—its weakest position since 1999.
Defection Wave Weakens PDP
Following recent defections by Governors Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), and Peter Mbah (Enugu), attention has turned to Plateau, Taraba, Zamfara, and Adamawa, where political watchers say defections are “only a matter of time.”
Analysts warn that the shift is not just numerical but psychological, as “opposition politics no longer pays in Nigeria.” The ruling APC, buoyed by federal influence and Tinubu’s reform agenda, continues to attract opposition governors and lawmakers.
APC: Four Governors in Talks to Join
The APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, confirmed that governors of Plateau, Taraba, Rivers, and Abia (LP) are among those being courted by the ruling party.
“We expect these defections before the end of the year,” Arodiogbu told The PUNCH. “They’ll happen before our congresses. The APC remains the dominant and most organized political platform in Nigeria.”
He added that Tinubu’s open-door policy and “Renewed Hope Agenda” have made the APC a “home for all progressives” seeking political stability and federal access.
Taraba: Kefas’ Move ‘Imminent’
In Taraba State, multiple sources say Governor Agbu Kefas is finalizing plans to defect from the PDP to the APC — a move that could end 26 years of PDP dominance in the state.
A senior aide told The PUNCH that consultations are “ongoing at an advanced level,” while APC insiders described Kefas’ potential defection as “a homecoming long overdue.”
“Kefas is a performer. His coming will strengthen our structure ahead of 2027,” a source said.
Within the PDP, however, tension is mounting. Party loyalists describe the planned move as “a betrayal of mandate,” warning it could destroy the opposition’s already fragile hold in the North-East.
Adamawa: Fintiri in Quiet Talks
Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa State is reportedly in ongoing discussions with APC leaders, according to party insiders.
The APC spokesman in Adamawa, Mohammed Abdullahi, disclosed that the talks were “fruitful,” hinting that the governor’s return to the APC was “only a matter of time.”
However, a PDP leader dismissed the reports as “empty propaganda,” insisting that Fintiri “remains the compass of democracy” and has no reason to abandon the opposition.
Fintiri’s closed-door meeting with NSA Nuhu Ribadu earlier this year, however, has fueled renewed speculation about an impending defection. Sources claim Fintiri was offered the right to nominate his 2027 successor, choose National Assembly candidates, and even decide between a ministerial or senatorial slot.
Plateau: Mutfwang Under Pressure
In Plateau State, Governor Caleb Mutfwang has publicly acknowledged being under pressure to defect to the APC but maintains that he will only move “if God and the people approve.”
“It’s true there has been pressure,” Mutfwang said during an event in Jos. “But only two entities can authorize me — God and the people.”
While Plateau’s PDP base views his leadership as a symbol of political identity, internal APC groups remain divided.
The North Central APC Forum, led by Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, openly invited Mutfwang to join, describing him as “a valuable asset capable of winning Plateau for Tinubu.”
Meanwhile, Plateau APC leaders such as Simon Lalong and Joshua Dariye have rejected the idea, passing a motion against his defection.
Despite the division, APC National Vice Chairman Arodiogbu said Mutfwang’s entry “would be well managed,” stressing that Tinubu’s national chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, is “democratic and inclusive.”
Zamfara: PDP Exodus Deepens
In Zamfara, 15 top PDP officials, including former executives and loyalists of Governor Dauda Lawal, have defected to the APC — a move widely seen as the beginning of a larger political shift.
Defectors cited “injustice and elitism” within the PDP, with one saying, “The party only favours the rich.”
APC leaders, including Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle, formally received them, vowing that the APC would reclaim Zamfara in 2027.
Governor Lawal’s spokesman, however, dismissed defection rumours, insisting that the governor “will not betray the PDP mandate.”
“There is no iota of truth in this,” he said. “Governor Dauda Lawal remains in PDP and has no plan to join the APC.”
Despite these assurances, analysts believe Zamfara’s PDP structure is “bleeding politically,” and the recent defections could accelerate its collapse.
Analyst View: PDP Faces Existential Crisis
With only eight states left, the PDP’s future hangs in the balance. Analysts warn that the defection storm — dubbed ‘Hurricane Tinubu’ — could dismantle what remains of Nigeria’s opposition bloc before 2027.
“The APC’s dominance is no longer just political—it’s psychological,” said one observer. “Opposition no longer looks rewarding in today’s Nigeria.”
As the ruling APC consolidates power and the PDP fights for survival, Nigeria’s political future faces an unsettling question: Is the country drifting toward one-party rule?
