Nigeria’s Crude Oil Earnings Fall ₦3.18tn Despite Production Growth
Nigeria’s crude oil export revenues declined by ₦3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025, even as production volumes rose, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS foreign trade report revealed that crude exports dropped to ₦24.92tn between January and June 2025, down from ₦28.10tn in the same period of 2024 — representing an 11.3% year-on-year decline.
This is despite data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showing that crude oil output increased by 12.7%, with Nigeria pumping 266.9 million barrels in H1 2025, compared to 236.7 million barrels a year earlier.
Quarterly Breakdown
- Q1 2025: Crude exports fell to ₦12.96tn, down 16.3% from ₦15.49tn in Q1 2024.
- Q2 2025: Crude exports dropped 5.1% to ₦11.97tn, compared with ₦12.61tn in Q2 2024.
Crude’s share of Nigeria’s export basket has also shrunk sharply:
- Q1 2024: 80.8% → Q1 2025: 62.9%
- Q2 2024: 71.2% → Q2 2025: 52.6%
Non-Oil Exports Surge
While crude faltered, non-crude exports more than doubled to ₦18.43tn in H1 2025, up 109.6% from ₦8.79tn in 2024. Non-oil exports specifically jumped 66% to ₦6.21tn.
This boosted overall trade performance:
- Total exports: ₦43.35tn (+17.5%)
- Imports: ₦30.71tn (+6.9%)
- Trade balance: ₦12.64tn (+54.6%)
Why Revenues Fell Despite Higher Output
Analysts say Nigeria’s earnings paradox stems from weaker global oil prices and rising domestic absorption of crude.
- Earlier in 2025, oil prices slipped below the $75 per barrel benchmark, putting budget revenue at risk.
- The NNPCL has also been diverting crude supplies to the Dangote Refinery under a naira-for-crude deal. Between January and April 2025, crude worth ₦219.38bn was sold to the refinery, reducing export volumes.
Crude Losses at Record Low
The NUPRC reported that crude oil losses dropped by 50.2% between January and July 2025, with just 2.04 million barrels lost — the lowest since 2009. This represents a 94.57% decline from the record 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021.
Regulators credited the progress to improved security in oil-producing areas, tighter metering audits, and the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) framework.
Economic Implications
Experts warn that falling crude earnings could complicate Nigeria’s 2025 budget implementation.
- Prof. Dayo Ayoade (LASU) said low oil prices could benefit fuel consumers but would “adversely affect government revenue.”
- Prof. Adeola Adenikinju (UI) described the trend as a “two-edged sword,” noting cheaper refined products but weaker fiscal performance.
Despite improved output and reduced theft, Nigeria’s reliance on crude revenues remains under strain, with the shift toward non-oil exports reshaping the country’s trade profile.
