N8.41tn Oil Theft Drains Nigeria’s Economy, Fuels Investor Doubts
Nigeria lost crude oil valued at N8.41 trillion to theft and metering deficiencies between 2021 and July 2025, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator admitted the losses were severe but celebrated recent progress in cutting daily losses to their lowest in 16 years. However, experts insist the cumulative toll highlights deep governance failures, corruption, and systemic complicity.
Billions Lost in Four Years
NUPRC data shows crude oil losses of:
- 37.6m barrels in 2021 ($2.66bn)
- 20.9m barrels in 2022 ($2.11bn)
- 4.3m barrels in 2023 ($355.7m)
- 4.1m barrels in 2024 ($330.3m)
- 2.04m barrels between Jan–July 2025 ($146.5m)
In total, about $5.61bn (N8.41tn at N1,500/$) vanished. To illustrate, that sum could have:
- Built 56,074 primary health centres (₦150m each)
- Funded 129,401 classroom blocks (₦65m each)
- Constructed 10,191 km of roads (₦825m/km)
By comparison, the Federal Government allocated just ₦1tn for 468 road projects in the 2025 budget.
Experts Raise Red Flags
Energy consultant Chukwuma Atuanya noted that while losses fell to 2.04m barrels in early 2025, Nigeria still lags behind its 2 million barrels per day (bpd) production target.
“Losses of 9,600 bpd are still significant. Oil theft undermines budgets, weakens the naira, and discourages investment,” he said.
He credited recent improvements to military operations, upgraded metering, unmanned surveillance, and community involvement, but stressed that theft continues to sap foreign exchange earnings.
Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at UNILAG, questioned the reliability of NUPRC’s figures due to weak reporting systems:
“It may be 2.04 million barrels; it may be double that. We simply do not know. And nobody has been jailed despite trillions lost—this points to systemic complicity.”
Governance Failure and Accountability Gaps
Critics accuse security agencies of destroying illegal refineries without prosecuting masterminds. Experts warn that without deterrent punishment, oil theft will persist.
“Until we start jailing people—including complicit officials and politicians—this cycle will continue. Governance failure lies at the root,” Ayoade said.
NUPRC Defends Progress
The commission insists reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), technology adoption, and stronger monitoring have reduced theft. Daily losses in July 2025 were down to 9,600 bpd, compared to 102,900 bpd daily in 2021.
The Bigger Picture
Nigeria relies on oil for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. Even “reduced” theft of 10,000 bpd deepens budget shortfalls, investor mistrust, and insecurity in the Niger Delta.
Experts agree oil theft cannot be eliminated but must be reduced to “tolerable levels” through:
- Transparent metering and reporting
- Host community participation
- Stricter enforcement and prosecutions
- Political will to confront vested interests
The N8.41tn already lost represents what could have transformed healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Instead, it vanished into a shadow economy of theft and complicity.
As Prof. Ayoade bluntly put it:
“How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”
